US Data Show Inflation is Slowing: Mixed Signals on Recession

Inflation has been nipping at our heals and pushing the economy in a way in which prices are rising and lowering the value of our paychecks. (Here is IMF's discussion Calculating Inflation.) There are some signs that inflation is slowing and that could be beneficial. Furthermore, there is some whispering that a recession may not be a sure thing but the chances of it going either way are high. (Academics and forecasters often use complex calculations but sometimes it comes down to "I don't know". Become familiar with ambiguity in the modern global business world.). No one is really sure because the data seems all mixed up. I think this is what is sort of stumping our economists right now.

(I'm stumped on what all the numbers mean but I do believe in paying attention and trying to figure it out. Likewise, it is possible we are starting to shift into a digital platform transition were a few weird market ripples are going to occur but in general we should have upward trend lines of growth. Up a little here, down a little there, but in general upward trajectory. I'm sure there are going to be bumps along the way. Current international conflicts were really unexpected so that is also going to create a few ripples in the market and push supply chains to adjust with some market quirkiness.)  

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics just released their April 7th, 2023 Report. You can read that in BLS April 7th, 2023 Press Release. 

-Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.

-Raise interest rate to slow the economy.

-Working hours declining. 

-Analysts are unsure if recession is coming.

-Job losses Manufacturing and Construction. (I wonder why? I have a couple of ideas but not sure. Someone will say at some point so let us just stay in touch with the market.)

-5 per cent to 5.25 per is expected to be the peak while we are at 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent benchmarked.

You may want to read an article by Financial Times 'US data raises hopes Fed’s efforts to curb inflation are working' (You should check out their cool interactive chart. I looked up mining and logging because of the Upper Peninsula of MI and you can find its on the increase. Manufacturing is also rising but is tapering for the moment. It might be temporary.)