Recession in 2023: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva Discusses Global Economy

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says seriously only 3% growth over the next 5 years!! (Yikes...we can do better than that on this side of the globe. That really kind of stinks!) She indicates that most of the growth is going to be experienced in developing countries. However, I don't believe people should discount the U.S. because there are going to be some changes that will likely impact how competitive the U.S. becomes over the next 5 years. New things are coming online soon and prior projects will kick in at the end of the year. At least that is what I think at the moment. Ask me tomorrow and I might give you a different answer. The crystal ball economic projection will be the 2023/24 transition.

 (Meaning maybe that is when we see new economic activity. Maybe not. I think some of the projections are against that. I think it could be a result of changes in business models started during COVID, new infrastructure, adjustments in global supply chains, and new shared national competitive strategies at home. That might match with new technologies that boost labor productivity. I could be just as much wrong as correct. It is what it is so we just sort of stick our finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing sometimes. All of the complex models seem to come down to some guess work based on what data they are looking at and the data they are ignoring.).

While we Americans love to argue about everything, we are becoming increasingly aware of the need to start looking over the horizon and resolving some of our differences. There is growing bi-partisan interest in becoming competitive and I think we are increasingly unified in perspective (Kind of looks that way to me I think. 🤔). 

For me, I think of it as....

1. Infrastructure: i.e. root transactions in my transactional theory. Things like rail, Internet, energy, etc.

2. Innovation/Technology: Creating the legal and political framework that allows for advanced innovative development by aligning our education and our businesses to reward broad based innovative adaptations.

3. Human Capital: Ok....we are starting to understand some of the basics here. C+ but I think we turned a corner in the past few years.  Social, legal, opportunity, education, etc... Let us see what happens. Fingers crossed. 🤞

-Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva talks about low productivity. I agree. The U.S. could use improvement in human capital along with new technology to push upward.

-She mentions fraying supply chains between Washington and Beijing. Data Supply Chain.

-Discussion on Trump Tariffs. 

-Discussion on China commitment to world economy.

-Geopolitical tensions contribute to slow growth.