Thursday, February 9, 2023

U.S. Senate Hearing On China Spy Balloon

This Senate hearing is going to be interesting. It would be helpful to think about how to intercept balloons as they enter our airspace. We should add the options to take them down or send back misleading information. Since they don't know which one is going to happen (actual, false, scrambled, hacked, mechanical failure, shot down, etc) it leaves them will less usable information. They may be thinking, "Is that good information or bad information?" 

Lots of discussion on what is considered threat. The military and politicians are likely to see this differently. The military has a narrower scope of what is seen as a threat and politicians are trained to think broader to wider application. It is sort of the way its designed. On one side, if you shoot it down without understanding and it ends up being something else it could turn into an egg on face issue. On the other side, if we don't shoot it down and it continues to transmit important data that also causes a risk.

That is why we need flexible options because each situation is likely different and each actions have different kinds of possible outcomes. We are going to miss some balloons so some might need to be shot down, some we want to false feed information (assuming we can) and some we want to let go if they are not sensitive and are unlikely to gain critical info. Watching can sometimes let you know what the balloon is doing (i.e. sending false/unimportant information and see if there are patterns between them all). That could work if you want evidence and want to study the balloon. 

 The political and legal side are different sort of cases. An issue comes forward, there is a cautious response, there is concern, broader discussion, and eventually some type of consensus on how to deal with it. This is a discussion on greater awareness and preferred expectations of dealing with such situations. As we calibrate our systems we might find more of these balloons so having some rules of engagement are helpful.

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