U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken: Chinese Balloons and Bullets

I'm just watching this now and sort of grasping the nature of the discussions (I suspect it was tense.). Let us say that things are very frosty between the U.S. and China right now. No Valentine Day exchanges I would suspect. Let us put aside the contentious balloon incident for a moment. I understand why such balloons exist and I understand why we must protest against their use (Even thought its not likely to be the last time. Its not our birthday so please don't send any balloons next time.). 

The bigger concern is China support for Russia. It didn't take much to figure out from prior tv appearances that there was going to be some coordination between China and Russia. Remember Putin's comments on "world hegemony" or something similar and his jovial step? You can tell from his comments, and the whole tiff about taking off shirts with EU leaders (ok you either read it or you didn't), that he was sort of semi-bragging about it without saying it (You know how this backroom stuff goes. Someone pours two glasses of middle of the shelf value scotch, cigars get lite, one looking at the other, the other looking back, no one says anything but the room feels tense, etc. etc.) 

Here is where I think China is making sort of a strategic mistake. Russia is a country that doesn't exist in the communist world anymore. It has some ideological roots but those are lost on the majority of the younger generation. Most of the world is not happy with Russia right now. China might have a hard time balancing between a business oriented country or a communist oriented country (One is to connect the other is to spread an ideology.). 

If they are a communist oriented country they will sort poke their finger at Western countries and continue to carve out a new Cold War Curtain (Digital Curtain). If they are a business oriented country, they may not want to get too far into the weeds with Russia. Putin is older, his moral arguments are low, and at the end of the day its unlikely to look good for him or his supporters. 

I'm kind of curious if China will sort of tip toe with lukewarm support for Russia or jump two feet in thereby making an Cold War curtain split. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't want to create an economic shock that cuts them from many of their suppliers and customers. So I suspect its just enough hot and cold water to keep the bath sort of like Goldie Locks porridge of neither too not or too cold. 

Let us also add to that there is indication that Russian economy is losing billions and if there is a major route on the battlefield it is highly possible that Russia could collapse. If the younger generation is proWestern and not supportive of the war, then how might that look for China? They could lose an entire market depending on who rises to power after a collapse (I would suspect a pro-Western oligarch but it could be anyone.)

Balloons are in bad taste but selling bullets to Russia is an ideological statement.