In life, size is not always the biggest determiner of strength and power. There are many different types of power and knowing which ones to use and when is important. 500,000 is a lot of troops. However, its also a lot of untrained troops that are more or less resource drawing cannon fodder for the movement of more trained Russian special forces. Ukraine, being a smaller country has some disadvantages but also has a few advantages in terms of have higher morale, sense of communal self defense, support by other countries and much more.
We have known Russia was pushing for a bravado comeback. While the news started hitting the airwaves a few weeks ago it could be expected and there were other signs of movements (weapons purchases, shifting of generals, switching of strategy, outreach efforts, etc...). There are always signs when strategies adjust based on the goals, objectives, and deeper psychological mechanics of those making the decisions (All conflicts should help us learn and adapt. Russian Fatigue.)
Size or Skill?
Read this article on post Georgian Conflict and mixed Russian Military Reform. What we are likely to find in such situations is that when large amounts of untrained troops arrive in a partially reformed/confused military state (i.e. why there is a disconnect and disharmony) that struggles with real moral purpose there is bound to be confusion. There is a good chance this elephant has a limp and not be able to carry as much weight as one might initially might think (Always be open to the possibility that one could be wrong. To avoid that risk one might hedge strategies by going through all the possible outcomes and their probabilities. The unlikely one's are where we must have some creative skill to envision).
(I suspect one could find a few key elements{cultural assumptions and strategies embedded in culture and personality.} that would create most likely positive outcomes that run like an assumption through all of their choices. This is why words are important but actions are more important. They each go back to a perspective. You need to step back and pay attention to some of the dynamics. You won't always be right, and I'm not always right, so it is necessary to read broadly. If one disagrees then they should feel free to click off and enjoy the rest of your day or post a comment and say why. Its a process of understanding.
If you understand the root methodology of cultural assumptions and then you would have a fairly strong understanding of most of the opponent's scope of moves because their choices utilize similar pathways but with different tactical options based on their individual differences. Level K thinkers are the hardest because they think of alternatives that only a small sliver of society will likely be able to understand and even if they had that ability to understand they wouldn't necessarily have awareness of that specific knowledge that comes with each person's unique experiences and backgrounds. This is just blah, blah, blah, stuff one can learn when they study military history or read applied psychology research.)
Mobility, commitment, home turf, UN supply chain (there are some difficulties here but through coordination one can set the stage that impacts other ways of approaching problems historically in other arenas like civics, business/economics, pollution, etc.), coordination, speed, tactics, etc. is where Ukrainians can excel and successfully defend their homeland. The skilled hand of a seasoned artist of war is much more useful in these affairs of finesse where the tact of a Neanderthal with a club will no longer give you the same results as it once did during the previous Cold War.
It won't be easy and one must make every man/woman worth 20-30 of their enemy (One could run some projections here. The method and formulas already exist.). That requires a level of preplanning and fast multi terrain movements. Consider a Few Ukrainian Options among the many different advantages they have that can hedge against greater numbers.
Putin has made a choice to move toward conflict versus accepting the right of nations to chart their own course. One choice, leads to an outcome, to another choice, to an outcome, etc. down a chain of choices and outcomes. Where that chain ultimately goes is often hard to see but it is possible to see the beginning and follow that path for a while. What can be said, is that he seems to be staking the last few years of his life as a free man on what happens in Ukraine (btw I don't think he would ever allow himself to be taken alive unless he felt he had negotiation power.). I would be stunned if he looses and he comes back from this. Even if he wins, he ultimately looses, or at a minimum loses a lot. Almost seems as though there is some intent by Russia to move intentionally away from the West and instead put his lot in with the growth in Asia.
*The intent of this blog is to get people to start thinking. This is very important for the U.S. to plot a course with its strengths, and hedging its weaknesses with its allies, to ensure that we move to a higher performance level that reflects the bright light from democracy's torch in a way that resonates to the rest of the world. Its a national development argument but there are many paths that can take.
No comments:
Post a Comment