If you are keeping up with the news and the conflict in Ukraine you may be able to see the possibility of a larger scale Russian invasion effort underway. That includes closing boarders, mandatory service, and other types of activities of a Cold War Soviet approach. Let us add to that a few other things that have occurred recently and some of the possibilities and contingencies that may be involved.
(When it comes to issues like this go fact check.)
These are a few things I have noticed that might be of benefit.......
1.) Russia has been buying all types of different low grade equipment from sympathetic countries. (They may not be running out so much as perhaps stocking for something new. All stocks are limited but it appears this would be an attempt to use low cost equipment for low cost mobilization and perhaps even to pass out to mercenaries.)
2.) Attempts to soften Ukraine, damage infrastructure, and forcibly push residents out of the area. (Could be an attempt to not have to deal with a "civilian problem" and in turn create clear terrain where everything can be leveled for larger troop movements. Part of this fight is about culture and pro Russian and Pro-Ukraine leanings that create issues for civilian management.)
3.) There is financial maneuvering but its hard to understand and very amebic because its not accessible information. All nations in conflict and under sanction will do all types of creative finance transfers.
4.) The adjustments have been going on for a number of months in low grade and hard to detect methods that likely are transacted through the black market and other methods many Russian officials utilize under the table of. i.e. the things off the books and hard to detect. (It could more or less be a strategy of holding and raising the costs on Ukraine for now and waiting for larger troop movement. Negotiations might also be a delay tactic so its a good time to work toward peace but prepare for what might come next.)
What I would think about is how the Russians might utilize low grade fighters infused with more skilled fighters that carry with them specific objectives (i.e. the historical use of peasants as fodder distraction and resource wasters). Mass amount of weapons purchases could indicate preparation and it could also indicate these are the "junk" weapons they are willing to lose along with the low grade "junk" fighters i.e. ex prisoners. (Pay attention to a potential move to large scale insurgency tactics. Discipline and skill is unlikely to be as important a strategy to Russians as mass overwhelming of Ukrainian defenses.)
I'm curious what Ukrainian counter strategies might entail? One might consider additional fortifications to create fall back lines and "kill zones" that raise costs significantly to the invaders. While the Russians might potentially use massive amounts of troops they will also lose many of them in the poor logistical administration and poor tactics. While mass is a strategy, all strategies come with costs.
- Creating simple obstacle barriers/battlefield design to herd invading troops into areas and through battlefield corridors might be helpful. One might consider organizing into a battlefield zone (..different then a kill zone which is concentration of fire in specific corridors.) and have 5 or 6 fall back lines with each one focused on specific objectives. (Think of a car bumper and how it crunches to save the car. ).
- Each fall back line could have a different objective designed to weaken the invading force in a way that controls the grind that allows the Ukrainians to manage and concentrate their resources where they get the biggest bang for the buck. i.e. pre-stashed specific weapons for the objectives at each fall back line. Because Russia will not know or understand the objectives they can't adapt. It creates chaos and confusion in poor training. For example, the first line breaks up formations and tests, second focuses on tanks, and the third on something else. The tactics and targets change so the Russians don't know how to adjust to minimize casualties and fulfill their objectives. If the table is set in a inconspicuous way they may not even know they are being funneled.
- For example, the 1st fall back line is predesigned to slow and diminish ranks and collect data on test capacity. The 2nd fall back line might seek to immobilize a portion of larger equipment, start funneling troops, and start thinning the onslaught in a way that helps better focus Ukrainian resources. The third might be about cutting all all communications and the fourth about stopping movement (i.e. better barriers) and the 5th about a counter push. (Someone might want to ensure plenty of surveillance mechanisms are present on the battlefield that continue to function even if Ukrainian troops fall back. i.e. a low grade early digital era battle field. Cameras are small, sensors are cheap, cell phones can be tracked to determine swarm movements, drone flights, satellite images, etc., etc., The issues is coordination, processing, and acting quickly which takes too much planning and training to do in current time frames but one can sort of see how the info processing capacity of real time data and quick response might be related. Something the U.S. military should think about as it seeks to develop capacities where small or large fights can break out globally.)
- However one important caveat. Between each zone are funnels where alternate routes would bog down Russian troops, tank and equipment and in turn force movements within the kill zones by the sheer ability to keep moving forward. i.e. the path of least initial resistance. (The goal isn't to stop Russia's initial onslaught but more to diminish them until you get to a certain place where a counter attack makes sense. Also why you want your fox holes and battlements to be designed protective from one side to keep Russian troops from finding safe haven for defensive purposes. They either need to keep coming forward or run away. Under the right circumstances we might find entire Russian units surrendering if they slow down but know they will not be able to make it forward or back out of Ukraine. Its unlikely they have the training for that.)
If one expected mass invasions one might also consider using tactics that include underground tunnels/weapons/supplies, weaponry that can canvas areas well, methods of getting behind lines to create chaos thereby further limiting troop movements and bunching them up so they are limping in movement and abilities. Adopting the best practices we saw in other wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan (Did the Taliban learn by fighting against Russian invasion? Might be helpful to take what was useful from that knowledge and apply it to a mid tech army like Ukraine when it makes sense. Military thinking follows lines like science so some of the root tactics Russians used in the 70's and today will be similar and likely people have already used successful tactics against similar styles.) and other places.
From a psychological level mass casualties in Russian ranks and total chaos in their movement and efforts will likely create fear among their troops and lower morale in a way that could cause officers and troops to be in constant conflict (Why offering immunity for defecting Russian troops could be helpful in intelligence and resource development. It also sounds like a good nerve to put a finger on and keep pulsating.)
Failure to create significant gains right away like the initial invasion might mean Putin will be subject to internal dissention and possibly economic bankruptcy of his country. If one could wave a magic wand and have pro-Western oligarchs ready to take the reins should Putin fall, and want to take his country with him, it would be an interesting safeguard maneuver. (Its a contingency and its helpful to the innocent Russian populace while protecting Russian military and national assets from being wholesale sold by an already highly corrupt official economic structure with a huge black market {20%GDP. Probably 25%-35%. At the top of the structure probably 40+%}. One of the reasons why the soviet empire failed, and this Cold War II initiative likely will also fail, might be caused by this corruption and theft of resources from self serving individuals. In this case, it appears it banks in Ukrainian's favor.)
Likewise, one might want to ensure they are tracking, tagging, infiltrating and compromising the elite Russian troops as much as humanly possible. The low grade fighters might more or less be distractions that provide cover for more seasoned troop movements. Creating moles and keeping tabs helps to lure and then neutralize such Russian units. They are likely to be well trained, stealthy, armed, supplied and be focused. However, they are also going to be drawn from many different sources to bolster their ranks which opens opportunities for mole creation and tracking. i.e. people who were once elite fighters and likely called back.
(Just a couple of ideas but you know they are just sort of brainstorming thoughts. I'm a chess player so I like to watch the strategies. {Interestingly, someone told me we had an uncle that played chess against the Soviets during the Cold War. No idea if it is true true.♞} Let us wait and see what happens. The article should help us think about some of the possibilities because no one at this point can ever be 100% sure of what is going to happen.
Maybe Putin will wake up one morning and think, "I'm doing the wrong thing, I'm hurting innocent people, and I have a responsibility to the Russian people and international community to check my anger, settle this, and work on bringing my nation back into the light?" I just wouldn't hold my breath that a bolt of lighting is going to strike him to provide the new insight {Old foxes and same mental traps as personality mixes with decision making.).
Peace is almost always a good idea but usually it is appreciated in hindsight. Yet if the waves of Russian troops come to Ukraine they should be ready to send them back empty handed to ask their leader why they risked their lives and country for ego? He will probably say something like, "I wanted to make Russia great again" but really is saying "I wish I had my youthful vitality back and I do not want to be forgotten when I'm gone."
When its over we do need to consider bringing Russia back into the fold of global society or it will be another despotic regime angry at its lost prospects and shunned by the world. In this way the U.S. might be able to do some good if Russia has a new regime at the end; its an internal Russian problem. We can't say what will happen because there are significant probabilities and risks for any strategy but we can look further down the road to how to flip the script on the adversarial relations for future reconciliation.) Updating NY article Jan 3rd, 5:30 ET. Ukraine Digitized Shoe String. Russia Blames Cell Phones 01/04/2022
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