Annexation of Ukrainian Territory and Calling Up 300K Reservists Shows Expected Escalation

Putin has certain characteristics that are likely to use the same tools of escalation to raise the stakes and costs of engaging in conflict. The latest move is to annex parts of Ukraine and call for reservists. Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses. Putin mentions NATO threats of nuclear use. I don't see that. It sort of stands in contrast to the overall intent and historical perspective. It seems to be a PR strategy to rally is home base.

From a strategic position I believe Putin is struggling with declining popularity. He likely is going to try and redefine he conflict as a defense of Russia and by annexing such lands he is legally (by Russian and not international standards) saying "These are Russian lands and Ukraine is attacking us!". I wouldn't believe he would find support, historically its likely to be rebuffed, but after what I have seen over the last 5 years it looks like you can sell salt water to the ocean.

This is why I say the Ukrainians and the West should be always mindful of the need to shift and adjust strategies if needed. Putin is not the type who takes losses and embarrassment lightly. He has a mind that always scans for options, openings, and ability to create leverage. He may be miscalculating the potential bigger risks that come from using the same/similar tools to solve a problem in the same way that it was created. This propensity to repeat strategies/approaches is based in personality, training, and experience.

I would also add I doubt he would use bulk mildly trained soldiers alone. This something Russia has historically done in their in the past with peasants. Having a route of a much larger force would spell the end of Russia through global condemnation and internal dissention. Thus the level k unknown factor could include new equipment from other areas, infused with more elite troops, and emerging equipment from China through ideological aligned allies. 

Thus maybe the time of increased global competitiveness likely has started. This is where our US leadership should consider putting down their petty grievances and start working on innovation and human capital development. My arguments for universalism of institutions are sometimes seen as silly and they are one in the same to our national development to the next economic stage and unlocking of human potential ("Just like us" is likely to become a major national risk. So I encourage proactivity and development of of our most precious resources.). How do we convince our leaders to look beyond party politics, self interest, ideological silliness and over the horizon to emerging problems? Let us see what happens....

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. Einstein