Annexation of Parts of Ukraine Has Longer Term Implications

Annexation of Ukraine is an important point in history and while it has been discounted by some it comes with its own long term significance.  Most historians are likely to say such annexation wasn't legitimate. They will also likely bring in certain aspects of a broader historical timeline into their discussion. In hindsight, current events are seen through the context of past in a way that sheds light on motivations and behaviors.

Russia is using false justification of self-defense which likely gives Putin some additional powers to lock down the decision making of the nation. During "war time" or in "defense of the homeland" puffery, one is likely to get more powers to increase control on the Russian population to fight off internal descent, more control over resources and create a level of perceptual support for his actions. 

Putin is a sly fox with experience in the dark arts of manipulation so he is all about creating false justifications and leverage. "Defending the homeland" gives him additional war powers that he can use to create that internal leverage. We should not expect him to just leave because his army becomes routed. He might ratchet up his efforts to create the Iron Curtain to isolate Russia more to allow for a level of nation building and internal industry protection. 

(However some of the fundamentals might not be there anymore so it will come with longer term risks of another collapse.)

I think he is the type who loved the Cold War and really doesn't like democracy or free markets very much. He likely blames such markets for the Soviet fall. However, that isn't true as from my understanding of history the USSR was collapsing already well before they reformed. Reform was born out of necessity and social pressure. Much of our generation remember watching the news when the country collapsed and with many had hopes Russia could be brought into the fold of positive international engagement. Right now that feels a long way off.

*adjusted 10/27/2023 to ensure the message is clearer. I got confused by reading my own writing.