BEA released their Q1 2022 GDP analysis and it was a -1.4% GDP. See HERE. If you want a pretty solid analysis of it take a look at U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit by Jeff Cox. (I like looking at people who have been doing this for a long time. They have lots of great knowledge. For me I'm just paying attention for theoretical reasons.)
What I'm going to say about this is that we have a lot of things going on here (Increases risk and complexity.). That includes international conflict, supply chain issues, and inflation. We also find that consumers are still buying stuff (Who says were not a consumer culture?)
At the end of the day this is not expected to be a major downturn. Yet I don't think predictions are going to be perfect. It could be a little more of a downturn or it could be GDP growth going forward. Older metrics and ways of looking at the economy are changing.
I think we are going to see real boosts the later half of year and we are going to have a great 23-24 transition (Could come a little sooner as adaptation time. Lot of businesses are shifting around right now and moving their supply chains so that is part of the overall view in addition to COVID digital push. I could also be completely wrong. I'm somewhat indifferent as its not central to the main theory I'm working on.). Digital GDP will become increasingly a bigger part of economics and society (Things will change faster leading to cultural, institutional, and social adjustments.)
Lets wait and find out.....
No comments:
Post a Comment