Monday, December 13, 2021

Could Michigan be the Place for EV Investments and Export Infrastructure?

Michigan is one of those states where opportunities to invest, build and "frolic" are available in abundance. Michigan isn't just a beautiful outdoor tourism state (the Upper Peninsula is a great place to visit) it is also becoming a "hot spot" for EV investment. The political climate of Michigan seems to be shifting toward collaboration in the post-Covid world and it would seem there is increased focus on building a cutting edge industry so as to secure economic vitality for the foreseeable future (Once your the branded as the primary place for certain industries they stick to those regions for a long time.). GM investments are one sign of renewed effort and hopefully we will see other advanced auto manufacturers following suit once a proper infrastructure plan is created. That will also require some form of marketing opportunities to industry stakeholders (....and other industries that will benefit from that infrastructure. See Pure Michigan, Marketing Databases, Attracting SMEBranding Cities and Clusters,  ).

The article GM eyes investments of more than $4 billion in Michigan EV plants that includes two Michigan locations(It costs $1 to $2 Billion to start an EV plant). Plant 1: $2.5 billion battery facility near Lansing in partnership with LG Energy Solution (051910.KS) and Plant #2 another $2 billion build in Orion Township to produce electric trucks. You can read more about other types of car investments in Michigan in Whitmer's GM Announcement.  Michigan Economic Development also put together some state auto statistics. To move into more depth on the topice it is often beneficial to look at industry reports such as 'The State of US Automotive Industry' and 'Exploring the Mobility & Automotive Industry Cluster'.

When I checked Ford's site I noticed increases in EV efforts but didn't see many announcements specifically focused on Michigan (According to some recent announcements they have decided to invest outside of Michigan indicating that the strategy shift appears to be true. There are ways to avoid this in the future. If the State of MI invests in hard infrastructure in conjunction with major manufacturers and suppliers they might become one of the most cost-value effective places to invest; regardless of reasonable tax rates. See $18.5 Billion MI Christmas Think about how shipping, resources, labor, etc....included in clusters and how the availability of such factors/resources influence the cost of conducting business. Tax rate is subjective based on the benefits the cluster offers in terms of rapid innovation and the infrastructure that allows for the shortest lead time between prototype and full production; not to mention decreased costs and improved access to resources. Ford trying to recreate much of that in a new location would seem short and mid term counterintuitive. Not sure on the strategy. It could work in the long run but the benefits aren't as likely to be realized as those who utilize new advanced infrastructure and have access to resources needed by shifting industries to quickly adapt and grow. In other words, there are also long term risks for Ford that is dependent in part on what MI does. Better to hedge with other industries to improve the export oriented structures that can push an industry to global leadership; in our case reclaim. See Systems Thinking, Industry Game Theory,  Cross Structure SynergyInstitutional Investors Cluster Stages, Economic Platforms, Perpetual Sustainable Development and American Semiconductor Cluster. I have been working on a theory and wrapping it back into itself to ensure it helps explain potential phenomenon as well as maintain an internally consistent logic. The model is just used to help explain the bigger phenomenon. Its just an idea...so its up to each person to determine its merit. Theory of Transactional Clusters. Its just a theory so and a Delta County Model

Where the industry development magic really happens during ground breaking innovation is in situations where companies like Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, etc... work in collaboration and competition within a similar larger system where resources and ideas spill over from one to the other. It is those shared competencies and resources that expand homegrown supply chains, educational competencies, advanced design engineering, tertiary industries, etc... Success in one industry often changes the technology available for other industries who then seek their own production contracts in locations that minimize their risks and increase their likelihood of success. 

The basic auto and manufacturing infrastructure currently exists in Michigan and seeing the the benefits of localized pack investing often leads to larger outcomes beyond the initial investments. The state can still recover by working with GM to attract other car manufacturers, suppliers, similar tech firms and long term EV investments that can build off of prior infrastructure systems (I looked around for some resources and found MICHauto Investment that talks about retaining the auto industry in Michigan. Some more information on Drive Electric Week.)

Furthermore a quick review of a couple of car companies/suppliers show there is increased investments by auto manufacturers in the general Great Lakes region (Someone would have to run the official numbers and do an actual formal analysis to determine what areas, products and extent.). That could be an indication of larger ramping of up of next generation transport and aerospace technology produced in Michigan and wider Great Lakes region (Michigan should develop a plan to rejuvenate the state through innovation, small-business/start-ups, advanced manufacturing, investments and tourism.). 

If true that significant resources are making their way to the area it could be indicative of industries starting to adapt to a national trend into the Digital Era/Information Age. A strong EV auto and space industry matched with an export oriented infrastructure investments could create butterfly sparks into other industries. (See Delta County Multi Industries and Butterfly Effect Innovation).. (Maybe or maybe not? It depends on choices, political capital, investment climate, etc....lots of different factors involved.) The point being if we believe we have a chance to return manufacturing to Michigan (US) on the cusp of digital technology changes, then participating industries could ride the upswing in renaissance type innovations. Whether or not we "frolic" through the fields of opportunity is highly dependent on our choices today at a time when many industries are shifting toward emerging markets (Which will determine in part whether the U.S. will lead or follow). 

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