US Economy Fastest Growth in 50 Years-Were Not Out of the Woods Yet!

When reports from noteworthy organizations, think tanks and governments come out its important to pay attention because they often have something important to say (ok...most of the time!). The one thing many Americans are thinking about is the economy. As soon as you turn on the news you will find the airwaves filled with economic discussions ranging from "love it" to "hate it". One way to stay in tune with economic activities and the decision making of global financial leadership is to look at some of the big reports that are released/published for public consumption. For example, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published the report, 'UN Trade and Development Report September 15th, 2021' that delves into economic projections of the US and world through 2022 and a hint of what is beyond (I really just wanted to see 2022/2023 transition based on my economic transactional innovative adaptation theory.  😢)

The UN states, "The global economy is expected to bounce back this year with growth of 5.3 per cent, the fastest in nearly five decades....." There are additional details in their post, 'Global economy projected to show fastest growth in 50 years' that indicate the growth may be limited (This is where we may choose something different.) What its saying is that we are having a great year in the US for growth and post-Covid launch 2021. The problem is, according to the report, that it isn't sustained consistently throughout 2022 and specific projections end around 2023 and leaves us at 3.5% slow growth thereafter (Assuming I'm reading it correctly.)

The modeling used to generate the report seems to "point to real growth of global trade in goods and services of 9.5 per cent in 2021". Meaning that we should see more movement of products and services nationally and internationally (i.e. increased consumer activity). Determining who will get the lions share of that (US or China or other) is still in the process of being defined (The US growth was projected at 3% during 2022 and China 5.7% during 2022 meaning that without change we slipping in position. This is where our leadership might think of adjusting strategy and using its resources to strengthen its economic fundamentals for a new era of innovative development; or not?🤷).

UNCTAD also expects that there will be a global slowdown to 3.6% in 2022 as the world income stays below pre-pandemic trends for most countries (I think this would because government stimulus would decline and regular activity would resume at "normal"). Its possible this can happen, but alternatively it is also possible that some countries like the U.S. will still realize significant economic gains while some countries will realize loss making big winners and big loser from the pandemic (Some countries were almost ready to advance into the Digital Era but needed a push to shorten that timeframe 10-15 years.). Furthermore, another option is that by the end of 2022 corporate strategies/changes start functioning optimally 3 years after forced COVID adaptation of their business model (We can change but we must then maximize that change by getting through the learning curve.).

It should be remembered that the report is speculative but is based in real modeling science and is an important part of understanding global trends. Even as a well written report there are a couple of contingencies it doesn't offer and can't put within its framework (Remember limitations and delimitations from research class?🤔📚) I think of these as curve ball outside changes that can't be easily modeled with standard approaches. They are also known as a "nonlinear events" that can create butterfly type changes we might not normally expect. See Chaos Models in Economics (...not from a modeled system that creates a flat trajectory line but from the real time shifts outside current numbers and somewhat dependent on our actions as a nation. Keep in mind how choices open and close opportunities. A little secret is that despite the complex formulas economics uses it is all really just individual choice added up into one large economic pot. Take a step left and have certain options and take a step right and different options are available. The key is to know when and where to step. To do that we can guess, use economics, or a combination of intuition and economics. "Einsteinian" Economics and Intuition-Science Solutions ) that through normal calculations is general discarded (That is why models are models because they can't calculate for the unknown well.). 

For example, if the U.S. becomes politically more stable and pushes for shared goals and mutual development it can beat economic expectations and spank China as an economic rival (For example, improvement in data infrastructure can improve commerce, innovation, manufacturing/production while at the same time make our system more resilient from hacking.) I suspect the end of 2022 will ramp upwards and 2023+ will be another growth year(s) (...again depending on polices implemented, or not implemented, at this time and moment in history. Our ability to make decisions as a nation is important for maximizing outcomes.). 

The report UNCTAD report projects 2022 that U.S. will have a growth rate of 3%. I'm not going to disagree that the total year may be that way but I think the very end of the year will see improvements as organizations are completing their transitions phases and more fully implement long-term digital strategies to be realized in 2023. (It should be remember that the first stage is to adapt to chaos by necessity, 2nd stage is to adjust the business model into a workable form, and the 3rd stage is to capitalize on new business models for longer term strategic growth.)

A curve upward is highly dependent on what our politicians and leaders do now, COVID spread, global markets and our environment (There are so many real life factors to consider that its difficult to project specifics but it is possible to look at societal shifts beyond purely financial metrics and into other national/international metrics that leads to greater environmental awareness and context of change.). Policies best serve the public when they are presented, approved, and implemented during "windows of opportunity" when a strategic choice at the right time, with the right resources, and the most options allows for significant butterfly changes (Think of how a space moves off of its flight path and a little fuel at the right moment can put the spaceship back on track but if we wait too long it becomes increasingly more difficult and costs more resources. Two Risks Post Afghan)

The US and China are in a position to capitalize on the Digital Era by embracing cross infrastructure synergy through the development hard infrastructure (i.e. rail, port, etc...) network development (maximizing communication, efficiencies, Internet and innovation) and human capital (primary, secondary, college, advanced STEM, skilled trades, etc...).  However, the U.S. is in a better position to realize sustainable gains through advancing innovation and manufacturing to corner global markets where China would still be hard pressed to develop that capacity (based on cultural aspects rooted in their ideological assumptions) quickly (They can do it but they would be behind the curve in terms of meeting the US natural entrepreneurial spirit. That is also dependent on whether the U.S. wants to push that spirit among the young and develop an attractive innovative environment where small, medium, and large businesses develop and thrive in a symbiotic way they creates sustainable growth.)

You can learn more about UNCTAD on the UN website.