Afghanistan is changing before our eyes and how it approaches issues will determine what it will become and its options thereafter. The Taliban have a responsibility to end the attacks by ISIS-K and ensure that Americans (and helpers) can leave without further conflict (It may make sense for them to open the door as wide as possible for people who want to leave.). There are differences between the Taliban, ISIS and Al-Qaeda and sometimes they may fight with each other. Lets throw out the discussion of Al-Qaeda because they don't really fall into the serious threat category in Afghanistan. We are then left with ISIS-K and Taliban as appropriate discussion points.
Taliban vs. ISIS
They are said to not like each other but do share some similarities of fighting style and learned techniques meaning at some point they came from similar background (i.e. fighting against the Soviets and the skills learned there. Low cost and highly mobile.) However, Taliban is about Islamic law in Afghanistan and can be seen as purists that want to fight locally with national agendas (Connecting the tribes to build a nation). ISIS-K is more expansive and a global brand that recruits to create a large empire (NBC has a pretty descriptive article What is ISIS-K? Islamic State group's affiliate behind Kabul airport attack).
Service Members Hurt
12 service members were injured fighting to help evacuate Americans and Afghanistanis now that the U.S. is withdrawing from the area. The lives were lost in honor and doing something honorable and we should applaud the bravery of those members. The civilians are another tragic collateral of war. War is ugly and the lives lost are some of the best (Our soldiers put themselves on the line like this and sometimes we don't think about that before we march them into war. Leadership, of either party, should do everything in their power to keep them out of the war-but make them the most effective force when they must engage.)
(Take a moment in silent honor).
Strategies Forward
There are short and long term strategies. Obviously we are dealing with short term issues at the moment and we keep in mind long term strategies of fighting/peace, engaging/withdrawing, supporting/undermining, etc... for a future discussion.
Here are a few things we should consider....
1. ) Talk to the Taliban about going after ISIS-K, going after them before they get to the airport, and allowing for a temporary extension of withdrawal as long as its for evacuation purposes (They follow Islamic law which also includes the sanctity of life. Under the right circumstances they may just agree to save the airport from being taken by ISIS-K. Agreement being to give them the airport after the last plane leaves and we are fully withdrawn) There may need to be a temporary level of coordination that won't sit well with most people after a lengthy 2 decade war. Its important to remember the Taliban are a loose group of squads/tribes/villages connected to a central leadership (likely will become more formalized in the future as near term semi-official government.)
2.) Putting more boots on the ground to create a perimeter around the airport, additional extraction points, hidden extraction points, etc... Provide air and video reconnaissance, allow groups to crowdsource ISIS-K movements, and do whatever we need to do to allow everyone to extract safely regardless of deadlines, fighting, and potential risks (A week of everything we got on ISIS-K might change the scenario and let others know.....we don't play around! Then leave letting the military be the last one!) Consider special tactical forces (special forces) to create a softer perimeter to disrupt incoming squads before they get near the perimeter outside the airport (airport is last perimeter).
At this point the Taliban may not see a reason to help the U.S.. They were fighting for decades but they were fighting between two formal entities (It doesn't seem that way but you have to understand their perspective and sense of equal legitimacy. Why their hope for "normalization" with the world community is a strong motivator for pro engaging behaviors.).
ISIS-K is slightly different entity and right now the Taliban are likely thinking ISIS-K are putting pressure on the U.S. and they have no reasons to intervein; at least for the moment. However, now that the Taliban are trying to form their own government ISIS-K will become a threat (a real one) to their legitimacy and represents foreign influence in their country (This is a big thing for them!). Afghanistan risks becoming a place where ISIS-K might seek to carve out territory (and keep an airport) now that their hopes in Iraq and Syria have diminished.
You can read a June 2021 UN Security Council Report on ISIS-K, Al-Qaeda and Taliban
I want to think about what has changed in our world since 1970's. Some of these groups have been able to coordinate across the region and attract people to set up a new country in Iraq and Syria (Think about it! They created a whole country where one didn't exist except in history.) Big Data will be helpful in understanding macro trends and macro movements that allow us to better handle difficult situations that are amebic. We are about 10 years off from much better surveillance abilities (maybe only a few years away.) Our adaptive ability can only happen through innovation (innovative cluster for military and economic purposes. A cluster transaction theory) and the power of human capital (Eliminating hate, institutional bias, and the derailing of human souls from their full potential and destinies. Its an uphill battle convincing people some behaviors are bad for everyone!).
See a few related topics such as defeating ISIS through Coordination , hedging skills through Shared Leadership Military, and Knowledge and Military Adaptation and Conflict Modeling and Forward Prediction.
Side note:
We hope and pray everything turns out well and peace will be the ultimate goal for everyone. We pray for our troops and those who have been hurt. We went overseas to fight for our values and our freedoms because someone attacked us. In the future, diversity will save us as a leading nation that becomes a beacon for religious tolerance, integrating of different peoples, and unity of national purpose in business, military and civil affairs. We can create a bulwark against such destructive global influences by practicing engagement and tolerance here at home ☮. Many of our communities (by racial and religious demographics) are separated because we haven't moved past the racism/bigotry dynamics of the past (This is why we shouldn't support aggressive bigotry or those who utilize our differences to divide our communities. No matter who their race, religion or politic). Since the Capital Riot attacks we now see the the greater danger to home grown extremism and hate based behaviors and not developing policies that thwart extremism from a more universal method (of any race or religion. See Hate Crime Reform Michigan.)
These are the times we should take heart and rejuvenate our American spirit to spread the message of freedom. We have history and purpose as the world's leaders. We can teach others about our central values. Our soldiers fought and died for an ideal. We should uphold those ideals in our families, friends, communities, states, and political parties. There are few things more motivational than the The Star Spangle Banner
...........
O thus be it ever when freemen shall stand
Between their lov’d home and the war’s desolation!
Blest with vict’ry and peace may the heav’n rescued land
Praise the power that hath made and preserv’d us a nation!
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto - “In God is our trust,”
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.
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