U.S. Department of State (U.S. Foreign Policy Arm) indicates that Taliban and 97 other countries have come out with a joint understanding to allow Americans, other countries, and Afghanis to leave the war torn country safely. You can watch National security adviser Jake Sullivan's message below. That is some positive news and hopefully it will allow for dialogue with Afghanistan and encourage them to take a pro-social stance toward the world (....versus going in the route of Iran. It should be noted there are different brands of Islam based upon which school of thought one follows. There is a very rich cultural history that parallels our own with examples of people who showed mercy and kindness as as well as strength and fighting. Some versions focus more on the fighting aspects while others on the peace and admin side of things. A group can be defined by what it focuses on and how it seeks to establish a position. In ISIS-K they are focused on Jihadism more than Admin. The Taliban are left of that and recognize their desire to build an independent state. So how they choose to approach their future is an interesting thing to watch. Their logic will be even more interesting. They may focus on administration and development or they may focus on fighting. The early members of the group were students and sought to stop abusive warlords. It may be now a little different. So time will tell what happens here and the route they will take. One will likely determine how well they connect to the international community and the other how many conflicts, sanctions and condemnations they receive.)
ISIS-K is an organization that focuses its direction outward in an expansionist manner. The biggest fear would be if ISIS-K carves out territory and in turn recruits to that territory. Leaving a power vacuum is going to be a big problem and thus we will either want to 1. )Keep a presence (doesn't appear there is any more desire to do that. 2.) Give it to the Afghanistan government (crumbled in the first few days because the structure was based on American support. I think it was more of a psychological thing because they knew we weren't standing arms length away.) 3.) ensure the Taliban fill the void (to block ISIS-K and international recruitment. They are Pushtuns...and I suspect don't want foreigners to establish themselves and compete for position. From their perspective they fought two wars over it so I'm not sure they would appreciate others making Afghanistan their home unless they are there to fight for them.) and 4. Let ISIS-K or other entity take the area (Definitely lets avoid that!🙅🚫🚷).
The best of all the options at this point would like be #3 based on what we might understand now. There are so many risks either way but we might want to keep some level of connection to the Taliban because Russia and China are trying to turn it into another chess piece in the global game. That will carry some risks in the future so we will need to factor a little of that in when deciding what type of relationship we want to foster/not foster (If you don't know...go to the strategy with the most options.). .
The many countries involved show solidarity to protect life and send a signal to the Taliban that while U.S. is withdrawing we as a world community would like safe passage and no bloodshed for people trying to leave. There is another message in that which is not written explicit but more implicit that is supported more by the action then the words. That if the Taliban act in a civil manner and are able to work with the world community there may be a few doors cracked open for future discussion. (🤷 I don't know...its highly subjective and easy to misinterpret. Like it most likely should be!)
Sorry rambling......
You can see the US State Department Announcement
"We are all committed to ensuring that our citizens, nationals and residents, employees, Afghans who have worked with us and those who are at risk can continue to travel freely to destinations outside Afghanistan. We have received assurances from the Taliban that all foreign nationals and any Afghan citizen with travel authorization from our countries will be allowed to proceed in a safe and orderly manner to points of departure and travel outside the country. We will continue issuing travel documentation to designated Afghans, and we have the clear expectation of and commitment from the Taliban that they can travel to our respective countries. We note the public statements of the Taliban confirming this understanding." U.S. State Department Announcement, Aug 29, 2021)
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