1Q 2021 United States Expects Possible 10%+GDP Growth

The U.S. Economy is poised to grow at a whopping +10% GDP in the beginning of 2021 according to Atlanta Federal Reserve calculations. That is great news for those who believe the economy is ready to roar back to life once the doors open. This year is expected to be a great year as companies begin to open up to the public, adapt to the the Information Age (Digital Economy) and manufacturing/investment starts to gain momentum. 

The calculation is derived from a running total called GDP Now that is managed by the Center of Quantitative Economic Research. Here is some information provided on who they are and the calculations they complete.... 

"The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the
estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. (GDP Now, 2021)"

Raw calculations are important because hey state what is happening in the present without being filtered through hindsight. That "now" means that unless something big happens (i.e. illness, natural disaster, etc...) we will have an excellent start to the year. Their projections are....

A calculation I did in early 2020
on the impact of COVID

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 10.0 percent on March 1, up from 8.8 percent on February 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 7.7 percent, 17.7 percent, and 6.9 percent, respectively, to 8.8 percent, 18.7 percent, and 9.1 percent, respectively."

What I'm hoping for is to be as close to my initial projections as possible to ensure modeling is still accurate. It was a little off on the end of the 2020 year but was off by -3.5%; likely because of resurgence😖. However, it was also expect that in 2021 GDP would rise and in turn bump again in 23/24 as corporations long-term strategies are fully implemented. 

0% GDP Growth by end of 2020.

GDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery? (April 30, 2020).

Theory of Transactional Clusters. Ongoing research since 2012