How the Economy Might Change After COVID-19?

The business world and the economy are changing by the minute, perhaps by the second, as stock markets bounce and economic animal spirits come back to haunt the bull market. Market chaos seems to feel like the new "normal". As novel measures are enacted to create greater pressure to adapt telecommuting, online education and online shopping we may want to consider economic options to encourage rational optimism for when the crisis is over.  The COVID-19 and social distancing policies may have inadvertently lead us to the door of the Information Age, Big Data and the Digital Economy. As pressure mounts on existing structures our economic system might just tip toward the virtual and that in turn could alter some of our basic assumptions. New assumptions sometimes make older economic models obsolete and leaves the field open to new models. Lets look at a few ways the digital economy could impact us......

First lets us say that some level of evolutionary economics is going to occur. This means that the environment has fundamentally changed but our structures are functioning properly so they will adjust to meet the new environment (A little bumpy ride). Because we are testing and putting pressures on these new structures they will adapt along with the companies that use them. There are times when chaos (Chaos Theory) leads to new ways of doing things based on shifted underlining structures....
         

• Telecommuting: More companies are now going on line and the Internet is working as it should. As many of these companies go online (Wondering what the economists come up with?) many will decide they would rather hedge their new methods and stay as virtual as possible. From a national standpoint 10-20% increase in online workdays fundamentally changes the basis of our economic assumptions. We would be in uncharted territory! Growth in telecommuting jobs 159% in 12 years. https://www.flexjobs.com/blog/post/flexjobs-gwa-report-remote-growth/
• Increase e-Commerce: Downloaded Apps and online shopping will encourage more virtual shopping and less drives out to large retail outlets. Amazon is planning on hiring 100 K new workers. Walmart may might want to push online sales more heavily. https://www.foxnews.com/us/amazon-hire-workers-coronavirus https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-to-hire-150000-people-amid-coronavirus-002023425.html
• Big Data: As more company and people transition to online life we often find increased data. That much data will change what we know about each other and business. Here is an article on $4.7 billion the data is worth to the healthcare and pharmaceutical industry. https://dailyscience.me/2020/03/16/big-data-in-the-healthcare-pharmaceutical-industry-2018-2030-opportunities-challenges-strategies-forecasts/
• Neighborhood Redesign: Health, "walk/bike-ability", local boutique stores, local court yards, and local fitness allows a sense of community and for "hunker-in-place zones" without seriously disrupting "normal" life. You can read a little more on sustainable cities of the future. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314259748_Smart_Sustainable_Cities_of_the_Future_An_Extensive_Interdisciplinary_Literature_Review
• Government Services will go Online: More government services will go online. For example, State of Michigan announced people can file unemployment at MI Works online instead of coming in person. https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/03/michigan-unemployment-benefit-claims-should-be-filed-online-state-says.html
• The rise of AI and Robots: Our technology is now touching upon advance technologies that will make their way into our daily lives. From home deliveries through drones, driverless cars, increased traffic rerouting, cleaning robots, and much much more. You might want to look at what Forbes is doing to highlight changes through the Forbes AI List. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/03/17/is-your-company-using-artificial-intelligence-to-transform-an-industry-nominations-for-the-forbes-2020-ai-50-list-are-now-open/#2ef209e63bf2
• Economic Fundamentals and Digit GDP: The economic fundamentals will change and Digital GDP will becoming increasingly important. There will be a shift in thinking globally when it comes to online data. You can read more about its rise above wholesale goods here https://www.ntia.doc.gov/blog/2019/digital-economy-accounted-69-percent-gdp-2017
• Online Education: Online education has grown and has a small cottage presence in most state universities. Sending students home means a quick development of capacity and not all students will return back to campus. You can see some of the trending growth prior to COVID-19. https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/article/2018/11/07/new-data-online-enrollments-grow-and-share-overall-enrollment
• Environmental Concerns: Our environment will become increasingly important to people and governments. The fight against COVID-19 impacts the way we view the global economy and its impact on the environment for all of us. You can read about U.N. Climate Change initiatives. 

While we might not be able to control the "uncontrollable" but we ARE able to control how we deal with it. "We can't control the winds but we can adjust our sails" Finding our bearings, plotting a novel course and giving others a point of sale raises our pride. I wonder which country will make it through the transition first? Crack of sails nods destiny.

This article is part of context for research on Transactional Economic Clusters that may (or not 😣) contribute to a body of knowledge on viable economic models. You can read more about it HERE.



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